In Montauk, What If, and What Then?

It was a Thursday afternoon when the big one hit. Until the night before, the storm had been forecast to slide just around Montauk, a narrow miss. Few had wanted to leave their homes and businesses on what they saw as a half-baked prophecy. So when the hurricane trained its eye on Montauk, there was nothing to do but hunker down and wait. For the next 20 hours, Montauk would be a ghost town. The winds grew violent, the ocean rose up, and Montauk prayed it was ready for the hell Mother Nature was about to unleash.

 

Cans of vegetables and loaves of bread floated through the aisles of the Montauk I.G.A., just a block from the oceanfront. A man stood in water up to his knees as his 4-year-old granddaughter clung to him. Fishermen were regretting their decisions to shelter on their boats, knowing it was too late. The Napeague stretch was six feet underwater. Downtown Montauk was drowning and the harbor had been destroyed. Boats were capsized and piers had been smashed to pieces. Power was out and cell towers were down. The worst of the storm had come and gone, but the disaster was far from over.

That’s an imaginary scenario, but eventually, a major hurricane is coming, and Montauk — whose lifeblood is the ocean — is not ready. If the hamlet is hit by a truly big hurricane, it won’t be able to just get back to its feet and walk on. To make even a dent in the task of full recovery will require an army of dedicated experts, officials, and residents — and a yacht-load of money.

This year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season involving four to seven major hurricanes between Category 3 and 5.

Kevin Reed and Brian Colle, Stony Brook University professors who are experts on extreme weather events amid climate change, emphasized the low probability of a Category 5 hurricane hitting here — because of Long Island’s relatively cold water temperatures — but highlighted the very real risk of a Category 3.

The story continues in The East Hampton Star.